Euro 2024 predictions: who will go far and how to spot value

Euro 2024 will be intense and unpredictable. You want clear picks, not hype. Below I give straightforward predictions: top favourites, underrated teams, and simple betting ideas you can use whether you follow casually or bet a little.

Top contenders and what to expect

Germany, France and England enter as the main favourites. Germany have squad depth, home advantage and strong young players who can change games late. France boast world-class attackers and a deep bench, but consistency and team balance matter. England have a mix of pace and technique but sometimes struggle against well-organised midfields. My short odds picks: Germany to reach semis, France to make the final, and a close call for England in the quarters.

Spain and Portugal are always dangerous. Spain’s possession game creates chances but needs a killer finish in big moments. Portugal still depends on creative sparks from their forward line. Expect both to reach knockouts; either could upset a favourite on a good day.

Dark horses worth backing

Look for value in teams with solid defenses and a clear game plan. Switzerland and Denmark are tidy, disciplined and hard to break down — perfect for tournament football. Belgium’s transition phase makes them risky, but a renewed midfield could see them surprise. Slovenia or Poland can cause trouble in the group stage and quietly push into the last 16 if form holds.

If you like long shots, consider Portugal or Spain for a mix-market bet like ‘top scorer from team X’ rather than outright winners. Betting on Denmark or Switzerland to reach quarters offers better value than backing a big three to win it all.

Key players to watch: quick attackers who can exploit tired defenders late, and creative midfielders who control tempo. Injuries or suspensions in June will swing chances fast, so keep an eye on squad news the week before kick-off.

Use form and fixtures, not reputation, to make calls. A team that played high-quality friendlies and avoided travel fatigue often starts stronger. Also check group difficulty — a balanced group with one clear favourite is where surprises usually happen.

Smart betting checklist: 1) Favor small, informed stakes over big risky bets. 2) Back specific outcomes (team to score first, over/under goals) instead of long-shot winners. 3) Compare odds across sportsbooks for best value. 4) Watch injury updates and lineups before placing a bet.

If you want a quick takeaway: back Germany deep, keep France for a final run, and hunt value in disciplined teams like Denmark or Switzerland. Use match-by-match predictions rather than season-long parlays unless the odds are irresistible.

Follow the group stage closely and adjust as you go. The first two rounds reveal form and tactics — that’s when smart shifts in your picks pay off. Enjoy the football, stay practical with your bets, and don’t chase losses.